More than half of British adults believe financial markets could severely lose confidence in the government’s ability to repay its debt within the next five years, according to new polling that highlights deepening public anxiety over the UK’s fiscal trajectory ahead of this month’s Autumn Budget.
The survey, conducted by Ipsos and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research between October 9 and 13, found 52% of respondents view a serious loss of market confidence as likely, while 58% think the government will need to take significant additional steps to cut debt beyond what is already planned over the next five years.
Expectations for the Budget itself reflect similar pessimism: 65% of those surveyed anticipate the Chancellor will announce tax increases on October 28, while 51% expect the government to increase borrowing further rather than rein it in.
The polling lands against a backdrop of rising borrowing costs, with yields on 30-year UK government bonds climbing to 6.029%, their highest level since January 1998, while 10-year gilt yields have also hit their highest point since 2007.
The gap between public expectation and government messaging underscores a broader challenge for Labour as it heads into the Budget: voters appear to have already priced in further fiscal pain, even as officials continue to frame the government's approach as a path toward stability.
With bond markets already signaling unease through elevated yields, the Budget is likely to be closely watched as a test of whether the government can address public and investor concerns simultaneously, or whether one will have to be prioritized at the expense of the other.
